Somalia on the Brink: Fragmentation, Foreign Domination, and the Quiet Partition
April 22, 2025
Northern Somalia: Under Western and Gulf Influence
Somaliland, Puntland, and SSC-Khaatumo are increasingly falling under the geopolitical grip of the United States, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, and Israel. This is driven by their strategic interests in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, as well as counterterrorism, port development, and potential resource extraction. The presence of foreign military installations, intelligence cooperation, and infrastructure investments suggest a long-term stake in these northern regions.
Central Somalia: A Contested Battleground
Galmudug, Hirshabelle, and Banadir Region are characterized by a complex military and political landscape. Turkey has a major military training base in Mogadishu and holds significant influence over the Somali federal government. Al-Shabaab continues to exert control in rural and semi-urban regions, acting as a de facto authority. AUSSOM, the expected successor to ATMIS, plays a limited but transitional role, reflecting the fading AU-led stabilization mission.
This region remains volatile and contested, lacking unified governance or exclusive control by any one actor.
Jubbaland: Kenyan Encroachment
Jubbaland, especially areas like Kismayo, operates under heavy Kenyan influence. Kenya’s military presence and economic interests in the region, including control over Kismayo port and cross-border trade, make it a critical proxy zone in Kenya’s regional security and economic policy.
Southwest State: Ethiopia’s Foothold
Ethiopia maintains a growing presence in Southwest State, particularly in Baidoa and surrounding areas. This influence comes through both formal troop deployment under AU mandates and informal ties with local militias and politicians. Ethiopia views this region as part of its broader Horn of Africa security strategy.
Conclusion: Toward a Silent Partition?
Somalia’s current trajectory points to a de facto partition, facilitated by clan fragmentation and the quiet entrenchment of foreign interests. Without national reconciliation, strong and honest central leadership, and a reevaluation of foreign partnerships, Somalia risks
becoming a patchwork of externally managed zones—a modern-day, undeclared colony shaped by geopolitical competition rather than national sovereignty.
Recommendations:
• Launch a Somali-led reconciliation process across all regions and without exceptions;
• Restructure federal institutions to decentralize authority without weakening the state.
• Demand transparency and limits on foreign military bases and commercial leases.
• Prioritize Somali sovereignty in all diplomatic and economic agreements.
The urgency for action cannot be overstated. What is at stake is not just Somalia’s unity, but its independence in the face of a 21st-century geopolitical scramble.
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